2010: Could be the Warmest Year Ever!!!!


This is something that will be in the news a lot over the next few months.  It is not certain to be the warmest year of the modern era, but it will be close.  My official comment on this is…..   Perfectly Normal.

Doesn’t this prove that Global Warming is real?  Not in the slightest.  It does prove that the AMO is in the warm phase and that the Pacific had a strong El Nino over the past winter.  Both of these events are natural and when they happen the average temperature of the Earth increases during the year.  I can guarantee that next year will be much cooler because a strong La Nina is developing in the Pacific as I write this.  This will cause a large drop in temperature next year.  It will also cause dry weather in South America during the coming summer (Dec-Mar).

Inconvenient Skeptic

Sea Surface Temperature (SST): Sep 13, 2010

The simplest proof that this is natural and normal though is by simply comparing to the year that has the distinction of being the current warmest year ever..   That would be 1998 (by satellite at least).  A quick Google search brings up the following:

In the footrace for the climate change champion of the world and the title Warmest Year EVER (in current records), 2006 was trailing behind 1998 and 1934 by a mere 0.07°F (0.04°C). But in a sudden last minute victory effort 2006, fueled by a very warm December, was declared the victor.

Inconvenient Skeptic

Satellite Temperatures: 1979-2009

What do those years have in common?  A warm AMO coupled with a strong El Nino.   That is why 1934 is mixed in, it just so happened to have a strong El Nino that year during the last warm phase of the AMO.  1998 had the strongest recent El Nino of the current warm AMO.  The surging La Nina might keep 2010 from beating out the competition, but it will be close.  To everyone that monitors the climate, we knew it was coming last year as the El Nino started to pick up this time last year.  Just like we already know that next year will be much cooler due to the La Nina cooling starting now.

Posted in Fear and Misinformation by inconvenientskeptic on September 17th, 2010 at 6:00 am.

4 comments

This post has 4 comments

  1. Karlin Sep 18th 2010

    What about this idea:
    The AMO is not the average global temperature though. What happens on the west coast of North America, which has sure been COLD the past two years, is not a good indication of the global temperatures.

    I heard a major corp CEO bring up the cold in our part of the world as a refutation to AGW [human caused] – if that is the way our industry leaders understand global warming, we cannot let them continue making the decisions!!

  2. inconvenientskeptic Sep 18th 2010

    Karlin,

    That is a good point that the AMO is not the average global temperature. It does however contribute to the increase in the overall observed warming.

    Part of this is in how the average temperature is calculated. They average the anomaly for a grid that covers the whole world. Since the average for the parts of the grid that are in the Atlantic were 0.5C cooler, the warm phase of the AMO increases the average because it is warmer than when the average was determined.

    The 2nd part is that warm water warms the atmosphere above it and that warm air transfers the heat to the areas around the ocean. An example is that Florida has significant changes to its rainfall depending on the phase of the AMO. This is also why El Nino can cause flooding in South America and La Nina causes droughts in the same region.

    The northwestern United States does experience cooler and wetter weather during a warm phase of the AMO. I could not say how much of the cool weather that California is having is contributed by the warm AMO.

    Ocean temperatures have a significant impact on weather. That weather can cause warmer or cooler temperatures over the average of a year.

    As for a CEO making a foolish comment… That surprises me as much as a politician making a foolish comment. It is certainly not an anomaly. :-)

    Here is a link to my latest article on temperature anomaly.
    http://theinconvenientskeptic.com/2010/09/us-anomaly-sep-11th-2010/

    Thanks for the comment. :-)

  3. 網路攝影機 Oct 26th 2010

    Great site, though I would love to see some more media! – Great post anyway, Cheers!

  4. Thanks for the post

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