This is something that will be in the news a lot over the next few months. It is not certain to be the warmest year of the modern era, but it will be close. My official comment on this is….. Perfectly Normal.
Doesn’t this prove that Global Warming is real? Not in the slightest. It does prove that the AMO is in the warm phase and that the Pacific had a strong El Nino over the past winter. Both of these events are natural and when they happen the average temperature of the Earth increases during the year. I can guarantee that next year will be much cooler because a strong La Nina is developing in the Pacific as I write this. This will cause a large drop in temperature next year. It will also cause dry weather in South America during the coming summer (Dec-Mar).
The simplest proof that this is natural and normal though is by simply comparing to the year that has the distinction of being the current warmest year ever.. That would be 1998 (by satellite at least). A quick Google search brings up the following:
“In the footrace for the climate change champion of the world and the title Warmest Year EVER (in current records), 2006 was trailing behind 1998 and 1934 by a mere 0.07°F (0.04°C). But in a sudden last minute victory effort 2006, fueled by a very warm December, was declared the victor.”
What do those years have in common? A warm AMO coupled with a strong El Nino. That is why 1934 is mixed in, it just so happened to have a strong El Nino that year during the last warm phase of the AMO. 1998 had the strongest recent El Nino of the current warm AMO. The surging La Nina might keep 2010 from beating out the competition, but it will be close. To everyone that monitors the climate, we knew it was coming last year as the El Nino started to pick up this time last year. Just like we already know that next year will be much cooler due to the La Nina cooling starting now.