Global Temperature Update: December 2010
November’s temperatures were a little higher than expected with the strong La Nina in the Pacific, but the anomaly was very similar to October’s values. Since much of the Northern Hemisphere is now experiencing dramatic below average temperatures it would appear that the delay in temperature drop from the La Nina resulted in a larger and faster drop when it arrived. December is well on track to have a negative anomaly.
It is easy to make predictions now for the different measurements and the overall for the year of 2010. The station sets are behind the satellite ones, so I will cover the satellite measurements first.
No chance that 2010 will surpass 1998. The December anomaly would have to be 0.75 °C for the average to exceed the 0.551 °C in 1998 that is the highest year according to the RSS data. As November was 0.312 °C and the average has dropped, 1998 will retain the title.
This one will be close, but if the November anomaly of 0.38 °C repeats, then 1998 will remain the warmest year for this satellite data. If the December anomaly is 0.0 °C or less it won’t even be close as 2010 will have an anomaly of less than 0.5 °C.
By comparing the trend with the UAH and RSS that have November data I am predicting about a 0.6 °C for November and a 0.3 °C for December. With those values 2010 comes in behind 1998 and 2005 with about a 0.7 °C anomaly for the year. Even if November and December had a 1.0 °C anomaly, 1998 would retain the title.
If you compare warm years to each other, this data set doesn’t match any of the others. It has 2005 and 2002 as warmer than 1998. It will show 2010 as warmer than 1998, but probably not warmer than 2005. November would have to be 0.6 °C and December 0.5 °C for that to happen. So 2005 will retain the record as the warmest year. NCDC is so different from the other sets it is hard to predict. I am clearly using V2 as the bias in V3 is rather obnoxious.
It appears that the blended is tied, but if the projections are put in, then it appears that the blended set will finish in around 0.55 °C for the anomaly compared to the value for 1998 of 0.59 °C.
For the future I think we are going to be a bit cooler for the next few years. The pattern from 1998-2010 is similar to the pattern from 1935-1945. Certainly next year is going to see a big drop-off as the La Nina cools the world off.
I firmly believe that the current warming that has been observed is part of a larger natural cycle. The warming we have experienced will not last much longer either. Maybe 10-15 years before the next cooling period starts again. If the Earth starts cooling down with the CO2 level at 450ppm, will that be enough to convince anyone that is currently a warmist?