December 2010: Global Temperature update


Global Temperature Update: December 2010

November’s temperatures were a little higher than expected with the strong La Nina in the Pacific, but the anomaly was very similar to October’s values. Since much of the Northern Hemisphere is now experiencing dramatic below average temperatures it would appear that the delay in temperature drop from the La Nina resulted in a larger and faster drop when it arrived. December is well on track to have a negative anomaly.

It is easy to make predictions now for the different measurements and the overall for the year of 2010. The station sets are behind the satellite ones, so I will cover the satellite measurements first.

RSS:

No chance that 2010 will surpass 1998. The December anomaly would have to be 0.75 °C for the average to exceed the 0.551 °C in 1998 that is the highest year according to the RSS data. As November was 0.312 °C and the average has dropped, 1998 will retain the title.

UAH:

This one will be close, but if the November anomaly of 0.38 °C repeats, then 1998 will remain the warmest year for this satellite data. If the December anomaly is 0.0 °C or less it won’t even be close as 2010 will have an anomaly of less than 0.5 °C.

CRU:

By comparing the trend with the UAH and RSS that have November data I am predicting about a 0.6 °C for November and a 0.3 °C for December. With those values 2010 comes in behind 1998 and 2005 with about a 0.7 °C anomaly for the year. Even if November and December had a 1.0 °C anomaly, 1998 would retain the title.

NCDC:

If you compare warm years to each other, this data set doesn’t match any of the others. It has 2005 and 2002 as warmer than 1998. It will show 2010 as warmer than 1998, but probably not warmer than 2005. November would have to be 0.6 °C and December 0.5 °C for that to happen. So 2005 will retain the record as the warmest year. NCDC is so different from the other sets it is hard to predict. I am clearly using V2 as the bias in V3 is rather obnoxious.

The Inconvenient Skeptic

2010 Temperature Anomaly by month.

Overall Blended:

It appears that the blended is tied, but if the projections are put in, then it appears that the blended set will finish in around 0.55 °C for the anomaly compared to the value for 1998 of 0.59 °C.

For the future I think we are going to be a bit cooler for the next few years. The pattern from 1998-2010 is similar to the pattern from 1935-1945. Certainly next year is going to see a big drop-off as the La Nina cools the world off.

I firmly believe that the current warming that has been observed is part of a larger natural cycle. The warming we have experienced will not last much longer either. Maybe 10-15 years before the next cooling period starts again. If the Earth starts cooling down with the CO2 level at 450ppm, will that be enough to convince anyone that is currently a warmist?

The Inconvenient Skeptic

Monthly Anomaly: 1998 compared to 2010

Posted in Anomaly by inconvenientskeptic on December 12th, 2010 at 1:48 pm.

9 comments

This post has 9 comments

  1. Njorway Dec 12th 2010

    Maybe 10-15 years before the next cooling period starts again???

    Are you sure?

    I have been in South America in November for vacations:

    In Peru, I was shivering with cold. In Chile the nights were very cool. I had never experienced such a cold November in Argentina (I am Argentinian) . South America have experienced this year one of the coldest winters of the last years, with thousands of dead fishes in the rivers of Bolivia and snow in Brazil.

    Now I am in Norway, which has experienced one of the coldest Novembers of the last century and December continues to be very cold.

    We all know what has happened last week in UK, in France (and in almost all Europe) and today in Turkey. And also today in Buenos Aires, Argentina, the temperature is of 20C when normally should be 30C at this time of the year. Could you explain me where is that excess of heat that you, RSS, UAH, CRU and/or NCDC talk about??

  2. Malaga View Dec 12th 2010

    The warming we have experienced will not last much longer either.

    I think the warming will continue while The Team are still in the kitchen cooking up the numbers… they really need more time as the numbers are only half baked at the moment.

  3. inconvenientskeptic Dec 12th 2010

    Malaga,

    That the average temperature is higher now than 50 years ago is real, but this is what is interesting is there hasn’t been much hotter temperatures as much as there has been less cold temperatures. I will show some of this soon.

    Njorway,
    I am still working on some of the cycles, but this winter is off to an impressive start in the NH. The global temperature goes as the northern hemisphere goes because that is where most of the land is. This winter could be very, very cold.

  4. Joris Vanderborght Dec 13th 2010

    I was wondering to what extend climate science understands the causes and mechanisms of oscillations like La niña, as they are so important to the understanding of the earth’s climate and especially to the detection that something unnatural should be going on with the climate. In my view, the trends present in the temperature record we have could be explained for the most part by perfectly natural oscillations. So, John, if you could for a leaman shed some light on what climate science knows or does not know about these oscillations.

  5. Malaga View Dec 13th 2010

    That the average temperature is higher now than 50 years ago is real

    Mmmmmmmmmmmm… it is difficult to know exactly what has happened in the last 50 years as the official records have been half baked and pre-cooked and repackaged and rewritten by The Team… but my guess is we are NOW back to where we were 50 years ago… its time to adjust your watch… its that Back to the Future moment when you realize that the flux capacitor really works… and we are back to era of the 1960s… or should I call it a Groundhog Day moment as we seem to be in a loop… or do I mean cycle.
    ……………………………

    At Midway Airport in Chicago, Ill., snowfall records were set for a 24-hour period on December 11, where a total of 14.5 inches broke the previous record set in December 1960.
    http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s557.htm

    The Lindsay Storm
    From February 8 through 10, 1969, the New York City and Boston metropolitan areas were under the brunt of a blizzard. Beginning as an area of low pressure that came out of the Rocky Mountains, it moved up through the Ohio Valley and began to weaken.
    Meanwhile a secondary area of low pressure formed off the Virginia coast, intensified rapidly and moved up to the east of Cape Cod.

    The heaviest snow fell in the New York metro area, the higher elevations of western Connecticut and Massachusetts and from the Boston metro area up through the White Mountains of New Hampshire eastward into southern Maine. Both the New York City and Boston areas received an average of 25 inches of snow each.

    The storm is known as the Lindsay Storm because Mayor John Lindsay’s hopes for reelection were dashed when angry voters blamed him for the fact that snow removal crews were slow to respond due to inaccurate forecasts throughout this entire winter weather event.

    http://www.weather.com/encyclopedia/winter/1960-80.html

    March 1960 would be one for the record books. At an average of 35.6 degrees, it was our third coldest March on record and coldest since 1885. By more than four degrees it is our coldest March ever recorded at National Airport (since 1941), finishing at 11 degrees below normal as measured by current norms.

    And then there was the snow. Over 17 inches fell, making it our second snowiest March on record (behind only March 1914, which came in at 19.3″) and our snowiest as measured at National Airport.

    Here’s some more March 1960 trivia …

    The temperature at National Airport did not rise above 40 degrees until March 17 and not above 50 until the 24th.
    We did not have a low temperature above freezing until March 17.
    It may have been the coldest ever on record were it not for a mini heat wave at the end of the month including 80 degrees on the 28th.
    The 17.1″ of snow that fell pushed the seasonal total to over 24″ or about 150% of normal. We were sitting at 45% of normal on March 1st .
    The snow fell in three different storms, all a week apart, from March 2 through March 16, with the biggest on March 2-3 (7.9″ in D.C., 10.5″ in Baltimore).
    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/03/the_cold_and_snowy_reversal_of.html

  6. Malaga View Dec 13th 2010

    I will show some of this soon.

    Well I hope you won’t be using data provided by The Team… they even had to stop using tree ring data because they needed to Hide The Decline….
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vx-t9k7epIk

  7. inconvenientskeptic Dec 13th 2010

    Joris,

    I will put together something on what is known about the ocean oscillations. That won’t be quick to get together though. 🙂

  8. inconvenientskeptic Dec 13th 2010

    Malaga,

    The instrument record is not perfect, but it does show some interesting behavior. The CRU data is fine for showing this. You are very correct that when it trends down, it won’t be what people expect it to be when they think about warming or cooling.

    The key is average. The average has warmed. That is entirely different than saying the Earth is warming.

  9. R James Dec 22nd 2010

    What about GISS data?

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