Global Temperature Update: March 2011

I have been working on a new format to show what the global temperatures are doing.  I think I have one that will show what is happening to the global temperature in a more effective manner.  The biggest problem is that the station methods are just slow.  They don’t update until the end of the month and even then their results keep shifting for up to a year.  It makes them not very useful for monthly updates.

The two satellite methods are much more real time and they have the additional advantage of showing the temperatures for different regions of the Earth.  Plus the evidence is mounting that the station method has some issues to be worked out.  So the monthly updates will be the RSS and UAH average anomaly as shown in the new format.

The average anomaly for the month of March is -0.063 °C.

The Inconvenient Skeptic

(Brown) Average Global Temperature, (Green) Actual Global Temperature, (Purple) Temperature Anomaly

Last year the strong La Nina was keeping the atmosphere warmer during the winter and that warm point helped keep the Earth warmer as the season moved into Spring.  This year the opposite is happening as the La Nina brought the global temperature down to normal.  Both the RSS and UAH were negative for the month of March.

By the RSS measure this is the coldest March since 1994 and by the UAH measure the coldest since 1999.  With both taken into account it is the coldest March since 1997.

The Inconvenient Skeptic

(Brown) RSS, (Blue) UAH, (Green) average march temperature since 1979.

The overall trend for March is positive, but the trend for the past 10 years (that is a full decade trend) is negative at -0.14 °C/decade.  Both trends are heavily impacted by the ENSO cycle, which is one reason why linear regressions for noisy climate data are worthless, but since that is the metric by which global warming is measured, I will provide the result.

When I look at all of the monthly data together though, the early 2000’s were warmer, but over the past few years the amount of warm months has been decreasing.  Throughout the year this new format will show that the warmth of a decade ago is starting to fade.  This shows up strongly in the rate of change cycle that is clearly evident in the records.

The Inconvenient Skeptic

March 2010 Global Anomaly

The Inconvenient Skeptic

March 2011 Global Anomaly

Posted in Anomaly by inconvenientskeptic on April 11th, 2011 at 2:24 pm.

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