Waiting for Warm Weather


This Spring has not been warm in Idaho.  There have been a couple of warm days, but it certainly feels like it is never going to warm up.  The warmest temperature so far this year was April 1st (joke on us for sure) of 21.1 °C.  The average high temperature since then has been 13 °C.  That is only slightly warmer than the average normal temperature for this time of year of 10.3 °C, but well below that average high temperature of 18.2 °C for the same period of time.  So on average for the month of April, the high temperature has been more than 5 °C below average.  That is why I say I am waiting for warm weather.

I didn’t know all of the details when I decided to put this article together, I only knew that it felt like it have been colder than it should have been and the data certainly is supporting that feeling.  Here is 2011 so far for Boise, Idaho.

The Inconvenient Skeptic

Boise, Idaho Temperatures so far for 2011

This is a fairly noisy chart to say the least.  That is one argument for showing anomaly data instead of the actual temperature because it takes so many data streams to show the same information, but of course the use of anomaly data leads to other unrelated problems.

So here is the same chart converted to temperature anomaly.

The Inconvenient Skeptic

Boise, Idaho: (Green) Average Daily Anomaly, (Red) High temperature anomaly.

This gives me even more reason to complain about the temperature.  The average April anomaly is only -2.6 °C, the anomaly for the high temperature is a stunning -5.2 °C.  The high temperatures have been more than 5 °C below average for the entire month of April.  I want a refund, where do I go for that?

The worst part is the trend.  Not only is the average temperature anomaly trending downward at a stunning -0.033 °C/day, the high temperature anomaly is cooling down even faster at a (opposite of blistering) rate of -0.067 °C/day.  All I need to do now is come of with a computer model that shows the seasonal decreasing drop in CO2 levels are causing the cooling and then make a climate projection in the manner of the IPCC and I would be able to officially predict that summer would never arrive in Boise, Idaho this year.

The trend is there.  One can never argue with a linear trend of temperature data.  One might get the anti-scientific label by saying that such a linear trend was not significant.

So I will sit and wait for warm weather to arrive believing that the month long cooling trend does not preclude warm weather from ever arriving.  Sadly the weather forecast for the next 10 days shows not a single high temperature reaching the average high temperature.  Of course I can take solace in the fact that the average temperature anomaly for the year so far is only -0.4 °C instead of the -1.6 °C missing from that average high temperature for the year.

Posted in Anomaly by inconvenientskeptic on April 25th, 2011 at 4:23 am.

1 comment

This post has one comment

  1. Richard111 Apr 26th 2011

    🙂 Ya! Well. No! Fine. Things do seem different with the weather these days. Maybe we’ve been sensitised? Local BBC weather always seems to give night time temperatures for my location as 2 to 3 degrees warmer than my outside thermometer shows. Maybe its bust. Impressed with your graphs.

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