You are currently browsing the archives for June, 2011.

June Book Update

I have been hard at work on the book which is why I may appear to be a bit lax at getting updates and articles done as frequently as I would like.  The reason it is taking longer is mainly because what was an edit has turned into a major re-write.  The main reason for […]

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Recent Rash of AGW News: Focus on Geology

There has been a rash of news about how settled the global warming debate really is. From brand new ‘neutral’ discussions that have concluded within a matter of weeks that global warming is real to Geological Society taking a stand that the current situation could be comparable to previous events in the past that were associated with periods of warming.

I very disappointed by the statement put out by the Geological Society. They put together a very nice comprehensive history of the Earth’s climate which is pretty detailed and is very much in alignment with the history that I have put together, but they also make some assumptions that are really not supported. I think the committee that put this together really had a fight on their hands.

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Really Bad Science: More Climate Apocalypse

Ariel Schwartz writes some really out there articles about the climate, but I think she has gone a bit overboard. Her understanding of the science appears to be about as deep as knowing each and every possible catastrophy that has been projected as a result of global warming, but nothing any deeper than that.

I will tackle the list of dangers that she has listed and add some facts to it. Somehow I doubt that she will appreciate a proper peer review.

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What Instrumental Record did Mann Use?

There is a new paper involving the omnipresent Michael Mann that is going to get lots of attention. The paper isn’t even out yet, but already I am very intrigued because the data used in the charts is clearly not the data that it says it is. The graph in the paper shows significantly more warming that the data it claims to be. For a peer-reviewed document that should be the gold standard, this one is already seriously lacking at the first cursory review.

At first glance I saw something wrong with the top chart in this figure.

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Temperature Trend by Latitude

In the global warming debate there is the idea that for the first time ever the entire Earth is showing warming. In the past there were aberrations where a single part of the Earth would warm up. An hotly debated example of that is the Medieval Warming Period (MWP) where the idea is presented that the warming 1,000 years ago was only around Greenland and Norway while the rest of the Earth was cool. This leads to the idea that what is happening now is unprecedented.

I decided to take a closer look at the modern temperature data for the Earth by different region. I chose the UAH data for this because it has the most data by specific latitude. Using three specific zones it is possible to break the Earth down into three specific regions that are nearly identical in coverage.

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If one bad idea doesn’t work, try them all at the same time.

Geo-Engineering seems to be experiencing a resurgence. The IPCC once again seems to be behind the idea that intentionally interfering with the climate is the way to solve the theorized problem that increased CO2 levels cause. Since all of the ideas will be very expensive and be paid for by tax-payer money and be run by the scientists that propose them, they might seem like good ideas to the scientists that are proposing the idea.

The key quote from the latest article about the IPCC push for Geo-engineering really explains the whole situation.

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Deepest Snowpack in June is caused by Global Warming???

It is now mid-June and there is panic starting to set in because of record amounts of snow that still cover much of the mountains in the western United States. Some places got as much as 20 additional inches of snow over Memorial Day weekend two weeks ago. In places that are normally long clear of snow at this time of year there is as much as 20 ft (6m) of snow.

The blame for this year has been on the La Nina from last winter and that certainly played a role in the amount of precipitation that feel in the mountains. What is abnormal even for a La Nina year is the simple fact that the snow is not melting. It is June and the snow is still deep in many places throughout the western US. So saying that a moderate La Nina is the cause when a stronger La Nina happened a few years ago, but without the lack of melting is a stretch.

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Desperate New Ploy by Dr. Jones

Truly a fascinating new development is taking place from the Dr. Jones of the CRU. The claim is now out there that global warming is statistically significant once 2010 is taken into account. The claim is based on the fact that with 2009 in the mix, the statistical certainty was only 90%, but now that 2010 is added, the 95% threshold for significance has (finally) been achieved. I have to be honest, it made me laugh.

The data is based on the HadCRUT3 temperature data from 1995-2010. That 15 year period is now the basis for the claim that global warming is real and fully upon us. The basis for this seems to be that the 15 year average is now high enough to be statistically different from the period before it. I could find a number of ways to torture the data to show that, but really it is amusing considering what the climate has been doing for the past 10 of those 15 years.

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Global Temperature Update: May 2011

So far every month of the year is showing a cooling trend for at least the past 10 years and May is no exception to that. The average global temperature anomaly for the RSS and UAH came in at 0.129 °C for the month of May. So far this year matches up very well with 1991 year to date. The AGW crowd would argue that the Earth should be 0.5 °C warmer than 1991 based on the difference in the CO2 level. Once again I have to ask, where is the warming?

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Summer Temperatures: Northern China

In the ongoing global warming debate there is often a significant difference between the perception of what is going on with the Earth’s climate when compared to what is actually going on. There is no greater example of this than the summer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. Since summer has arrived (in practice at least) I am going to spend the summer going over recent research that shows that the modern period is not having unusually high summer temperatures.

The normal perception is that the summer temperatures are going to increase until they are much, much hotter than they have been in who knows how long. The reality is not even close to that perception. A recent study (Yi, Yu, 2011) is probably the highest resolution reconstruction using temperature and precipitation records from the region and then correlating to tree-ring data to create a high resolution reconstruction of the summer temperatures for North-Central China.

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