It is now mid-June and there is panic starting to set in because of record amounts of snow that still cover much of the mountains in the western United States. Some places got as much as 20 additional inches of snow over Memorial Day weekend two weeks ago. In places that are normally long clear of snow at this time of year there is as much as 20 ft (6m) of snow.
The blame for this year has been on the La Nina from last winter and that certainly played a role in the amount of precipitation that fell in the mountains. What is abnormal even for a La Nina year is the simple fact that the snow is not melting. It is June and the snow is still deep in many places throughout the western US. So saying that a moderate La Nina is the cause when a stronger La Nina happened a few years ago, but without the lack of melting is a stretch.
So what is preventing the snow from melting? Oddly enough I have already been able to find that at least some scientists are already out there claiming that global warming is causing the record levels of snow in the month of June. I found one terrific quote from one of the scientists making the claim:
“We don’t understand everything, and we don’t understand how the different feedbacks affect different parts of the climate system,” said Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, a private firm in Lexington, Mass. “It’s very complicated. So we should expect the unexpected.”
I knew it would not take long for any unusual weather event to get the global warming claim attached to it and certainly that appears to be the case here.
The article mentions three different natural variations that the Earth goes through. The PDO, ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation. None of these of course is caused by global warming and the PDO and not mentioned AMO are large contributors to the warming that took place from 1995-2003. Certainly it now appears that the PDO might be going negative now and the natural effect of that will be more weather like this in the future.
If the next decade behaves like now or shows cooling as it likely will if the PDO and AMO both go negative, what will be the effect on the theory of global warming? Will the colder weather for a decade still be considered a consequence of CO2 emissions? The question I have to ask is what will the Earth have to do to convince these scientists that they are wrong?
I fully expect that the next 100 years will be colder than the past 100 years. Everything is now in place for the Earth and particularly the Northern Hemisphere to experience an extended period of cooling. My prediction for the next 100 years is that June’s with snow levels like this will be much more normal. It will not happen all the time, but it might happen 10-20% of the time. Hopefully it won’t happen more frequently than that.
More on that in the book which is almost ready to go.