Global Temperature Update: May 2011

So far every month of the year is showing a cooling trend for at least the past 10 years and May is no exception to that.  The average global temperature anomaly for the RSS and UAH came in at 0.129 °C for the month of May.  So far this year matches up very well with 1991 year to date.  The AGW crowd would argue that the Earth should be 0.5 °C warmer than 1991 based on the difference in the CO2 level.  Once again I have to ask, where is the warming?

The Inconvenient Skeptic

(Brown) Measured Global Temperature, (Green) Average Global Temperature, (Purple) Temperature Anomaly

The Earth is warming up exactly as it should for this time of year.  The average temperature of the Earth’s surface will soon exceed 15 °C which it does every year.  It might reach 16 °C this summer like it did last year, but that is looking increasingly unlikely as the year proceeds.

At this point last year the Earth was in the grip of a strong El Nino that really warmed up the tropics and caused 2010 to be a warm year on the global level.  Last winter a strong, but short lived La Nina took over the tropics and right now the whole ENSO is pretty neutral.  There is no major ocean cycle impacting the global temperature at the moment.  It will be interesting to see what develops there as the year progress.  It does look to be a fairly mild year as far as the ENSO goes.

The Inconvenient Skeptic

(Brown) RSS, (Blue) UAH, (Green) average May temperature since 1979.

The 10 year trend is -0.1 °C/decade.  If the 10 year rate of “warming” continues then by the year 2100 the average temperature in May will drop 0.8 °C.  That would put the monthly anomaly at -0.7 °C.  I consider that more likely than May being 1.0 °C warmer than it is now much less 3 °C warmer than it is now.  What it really shows is how useless temperature trends are at predicting the future temperature of the Earth.

The Inconvenient Skeptic

10 Year trend in temperature by source. Both satellite methods are detecting the decreasing May temperatures around the world.

I am going to stretch and predict that Greenland is not going to be helpful to the AGW cause this year.  The Arctic sea ice probably will, but not Greenland.  Take a look at this and leave your opinion as to what is going on in that region right now.

The Inconvenient Skeptic

RSS Temperature Anomaly for May 2011.

Posted in Anomaly by inconvenientskeptic on June 8th, 2011 at 10:49 am.

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