A few thoughts on the drought in Texas.


The drought in Texas is a terrible disaster for that state.  Predicting things like this should be one of the main purposes of climate scientists.  Here is the current drought index.

Inconvenient Skeptic

Drought Index

I had previously noted that that the Pacific has developed a cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).  I have been suspecting that there is a correlation between the two events.  My research has made clear that the oceans cycles dominate the weather on the land and this should not be an exception.  My region has had a cool and moist year on average and Texas has had the opposite.  In looking around I found this for a warm phase PDO.

Incovnenient Skeptic

Warm phase PDO effect on precipitation. The ocean pattern is opposite. The opposite moisture pattern is happening as well.

This is the exact opposite pattern that the country is now experiencing.  This climate impact chart is from UCLA in 2005.  Here is one more example where an ocean pattern is dominating the climate across a continent.  The cool phase PDO that the Pacific also appears to be strengthening.  As long as this pattern holds in the Pacific it is unlikely that Texas will get relief from the drought.

If climate scientists were really doing their job they would have been all over this so Texas could have been more prepared.  Such phase changes in the ocean are natural and they will continue to happen.  Early detection is a key factor in preparing for droughts.  We are not in control of the Earth’s climate, but we can be in charge of how prepared we are for events like this.

Skeptic

Current Pacific SST Pattern

Posted in Cause and Effect and Climate and Ocean: Sea Level and SST by inconvenientskeptic on August 11th, 2011 at 5:15 am.

3 comments

This post has 3 comments

  1. Richard111 Aug 15th 2011

    “We are not in control of the Earth’s climate, but we can be in charge of how prepared we are for events like this.”

    Not a chance! “They” will never publish any data that shows droughts can be caused by anything other than CO2 driven global warming.

  2. inconvenientskeptic Aug 15th 2011

    Perhaps, but so far most of the things I have seen are comparing this drought to the one in the 1950’s. Since Texas has had such bad droughts in the past, the sell of global warming has been difficult so far. Not that Al Gore isn’t trying of course.

  3. Texas is geographically about 60% semi-arid.

    Isn’t drought in a semi-arid place about as surprising as cold weather in the arctic?

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