The recent presentation by Dr. Murry Salby is getting lots of attention. I have now listened to his podcast and I must say it is intriguing. Instead of rehashing discussion that has been done to death on other sites I am going to show some things that I found previously that tie in well with his paper. I didn’t understand what I found at the time, but now it is clear that what I found actually supports what he is proposing. That human emissions have almost no impact that global CO2.
When I was working with the sea level data and the acceleration rates for the sea level I also used that same method on temperature and CO2 level. Acceleration is the rate at which the rate is changing. Acceleration is zero if the speed is not changing. When I used the same method for determining the acceleration for temperature I ended up with this result.
This clearly shows that the acceleration rate of global temperature is cyclical in nature. Since 1996 there has been no high rate of acceleration. This was based on the linear regression of 5 year intervals which is why the last year is a few years ago. A second regression of the 1st is how the acceleration was determined. There was no curve fitting involved.
I then used the same method for the monthly global CO2 level.
This also shows the same type of cyclical behavior. Now to do my favorite analysis and figure out the timing.
This ties in exactly with what Dr. Salby has found. The Earth’s temperature starts to swing in a direction and the CO2 level follows. This does not get into the C12 and C13 argument that Dr. Salby discusses, but it does show that rate of global temperature change precedes the global rate of CO2 change. This would be why some Januaries (to use Dr. Salby’s terms) show great change some years or very little other years.
I found this about 9 months ago, but was unsure what it meant so I sat on it because I did not have a good interpretation for it. Now I do and it is clear that Dr. Salby has found something that could profoundly alter the debate.
On a side note I did some quick calculations today in preparation for this article. Human emissions are ~ 3E13 kg/yr which accounts for ~ 1.5% of the total CO2 in the atmosphere. As Dr. Salby points out that the total emissions and sinks are much, much greater than that. As a result the turnover in the atmosphere turns over every few years. He puts it at 5 years, but the range normally given is 2-10 years. For human emissions to turnover the CO2 in the atmosphere it would take 67 years. That is using the latest year which is the highest level of emissions ever.
This still leaves a problem though. If Dr. Salby is correct, then there is a serious problem with the proxy CO2 data. Since most of the proxy data is from ice cores it might eliminate them as a reliable proxy for CO2. He does discuss this in the Q&A session but it will also be a MAJOR blow to global warming if the ice core proxy for CO2 level is eliminated.