One of the many dangers of global warming being thrown around is the increased incidence of malaria in Africa. The theory being that warmer climate would allow mosquitoes to transmit malaria to higher altitudes as the climate warmed up. Year after year it has been thrown out that malaria will rise as a result of global warming. Considering the typical accuracy of the IPCC, it should be no surprise that they are once again completely wrong.
A new paper from Malaria Journal is claiming that there has been an unexplained and dramatic DECREASE in the mosquitoes that cause malaria. The drop over the past 20 years cannot be explained by activities to reduce mosquitoes and the drop is ~100%. They actually put the percent drop at 99.7% and 99.8%, but you will excuse me if I round that up a tiny amount. This qualifies as a significant drop in the mosquitoes that transmit malaria.
The paper itself discusses if the previously unexplained drop in malaria is caused by the drop in the mosquito population and that would appear to be the case. The drop is so large that the BBC article on the paper has the following quote:
Prof Meyrowitsch added: “Other scientists are saying they can’t test their drugs because there are no children left with malaria.
So the latest science shows that malaria infection rates are dropping and the likely cause is a decrease in the disease carrying mosquito population. This certainly is contrary to the predictions of the IPCC.
So what is causing the drop in the mosquito population? The paper also covers that. There is this ambiguous statement that might suggest that rainfall patterns are the culprit:
Part of the decline could be associated with changes in the pattern of monthly rainfall
But the results section contradicts that statement with the precise statement of:
With the exception of the decline in An. gambiae during the 1st period, the results did not reveal any statistical association between
mean trend in monthly rainfall and declining malaria vector populations.
So the results of the paper are that there is no statistical association between the trend in monthly rainfall and the decline the the mosquito populations in question. The climate does not appear to be the cause of the drop in the mosquito population. The chart for the mosquitoes captured and the monthly rainfall show the accuracy of the statement.
While this trend may reverse itself in the future, it is obvious that the projections of the IPCC are basically meaningless because there is so much that still needs to be learned about the ecosystems of the Earth. They create a theory that sounds plausible if the Earth warms, but in the end, the observations keep failing to match the predictions.
In the meantime the people in Africa are experiencing a decrease in a devastating disease and everyone should rejoice in that news. For those that question the methods and motives of the IPCC, this is just one more example of real world observations showing the opposite of what is predicted by the IPCC.