One of the main ideas behind global warming is that the oceans will warm up because of the extra CO2 in the atmosphere. This is where the idea of “backradiation” as emitted by extra CO2 causes the oceans to warm up and then transfer the warmth to the bottom of the oceans. They are even adding in the idea that it takes a break for a decade or two as the heat dumps into the deeper ocean. One of the reasons they need this new idea that global warming takes a break for a decade or two is because the oceans are showing every sign of cooling. Always useful to have a new theory on hand that explains why the Earth is decidedly not following the theory of global warming.
Sometime in the near future the 400 ppm level of CO2 is going to be reached and you can bet that there will be a field day in the warmist community as the doom of the planet Earth is trumpeted about. The problem they will face is that the Earth at 400 ppm is likely to appear markedly cooler than it did at 365 ppm. The early indicator of this is the sea surface temperatures. That region of the Earth that is supposed to be warming as a direct result of the CO2 level and it is not behaving as the theory of global warming predicts.
Since the difference between the average and the measured is how the anomaly is determined, it is straightforward to show the daily temperature anomaly for the year so far. It shows that 2011 is well below the average temperature of the past decade for almost every day so far this year.
To put this into perspective, I have average the anomaly for the year-to-date for 2003 through 2011. The results are that 2011 is the 2nd coolest year since 2003 for the SST.
Here is where it gets even more interesting. In the past week (Sep 26th – Oct 3rd) of the available data, the ocean temperature is the coldest of the entire period. Since this is all based on the satellite data it is possible that the ocean temperatures are setting a record cold temperature for this time of year. This is why the warmists are in an absolute panic about this data and why they are working to get ahead of it with the theory that global warming will take a little break before roaring back in the future.
It is clear from the first chart that the drop in anomaly is due to a drop in the oceans temperatures and not necessarily a directional change in the average which can cause large anomalies to happen. Since oceans cover 70% of the Earth’s surface and the global anomaly for that surface is the lowest in at least the past decade there is a real need for the warmists to explain how colder oceans are caused by global warming. It is good to know that their spin machine is up to the task of explaining why global warming is causing the oceans to show such dramatic cooling.
What is more problematic is that the data I have found ends on Oct 3rd, but in the past couple of weeks the ocean anomaly appears to have dropped even further. By the time the final data is in is certainly possible that October of 2011 will have the coldest oceans recorded in the satellite era. I will be paying close attention to this little story over the next few weeks as the data becomes available.