Coldest Early October for the Sea Surface Temperatures

One of the main ideas behind global warming is that the oceans will warm up because of the extra CO2 in the atmosphere.  This is where the idea of “backradiation” as emitted by extra CO2 causes the oceans to warm up and then transfer the warmth to the bottom of the oceans.  They are even adding in the idea that it takes a break for a decade or two as the heat dumps into the deeper ocean.  One of the reasons they need this new idea that global warming takes a break for a decade or two is because the oceans are showing every sign of cooling.  Always useful to have a new theory on hand that explains why the Earth is decidedly not following the theory of global warming.

Sometime in the near future the 400 ppm level of CO2 is going to be reached and you can bet that there will be a field day in the warmist community as the doom of the planet Earth is trumpeted about.  The problem they will face is that the Earth at 400 ppm is likely to appear markedly cooler than it did at 365 ppm.  The early indicator of this is the sea surface temperatures.  That region of the Earth that is supposed to be warming as a direct result of the CO2 level and it is not behaving as the theory of global warming predicts.

The Inconvenient Skeptic

(Black) Average Sea Surface Temperature, (Blue) 2011 Sea Surface Temperature

Since the difference between the average and the measured is how the anomaly is determined, it is straightforward to show the daily temperature anomaly for the year so far.  It shows that 2011 is well below the average temperature of the past decade for almost every day so far this year.

The Inconvenient Skeptic

Daily Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly for 2011

To put this into perspective, I have average the anomaly for the year-to-date for 2003 through 2011.  The results are that 2011 is the 2nd coolest year since 2003 for the SST.

The Inconvenient Skeptic

Average SST Anomaly from Jan 1 to Oct 3rd.

Here is where it gets even more interesting.  In the past week (Sep 26th – Oct 3rd) of the available data, the ocean temperature is the coldest of the entire period.  Since this is all based on the satellite data it is possible that the ocean temperatures are setting a record cold temperature for this time of year.  This is why the warmists are in an absolute panic about this data and why they are working to get ahead of it with the theory that global warming will take a little break before roaring back in the future.

The Inconvenient Skeptic

Last week of global SST anomaly data since 2003.

It is clear from the first chart that the drop in anomaly is due to a drop in the oceans temperatures and not necessarily a directional change in the average which can cause large anomalies to happen.  Since oceans cover 70% of the Earth’s surface and the global anomaly for that surface is the lowest in at least the past decade there is a real need for the warmists to explain how colder oceans are caused by global warming.  It is good to know that their spin machine is up to the task of explaining why global warming is causing the oceans to show such dramatic cooling.

What is more problematic is that the data I have found ends on Oct 3rd, but in the past couple of weeks the ocean anomaly appears to have dropped even further.  By the time the final data is in is certainly possible that October of 2011 will have the coldest oceans recorded in the satellite era.  I will be paying close attention to this little story over the next few weeks as the data becomes available.

Posted in Ocean: Sea Level and SST by inconvenientskeptic on October 18th, 2011 at 4:46 am.


This post has 11 comments

  1. Richard111 Oct 18th 2011

    I am still baffled by this CO2 business. CO2 has three active bands at around 2.7, 4.3 and 15 microns. According to Weins Law, peak radiation for 2.7 microns is about 400C, and at 4.3 microns it is about 200C. The only time photons with energy levels at those temperatures is in the day time. From the sun! So that is TWO energy bands blocking sunlight, or at least reducing by half, some high energy IR from the sun.

    The 15 micron band is only effective at night, it still blocks or reduces by half in the day time, yet the effective energy level of the 15 micron band is much lower.

    So the way I see it is that CO2 blocks 3 bands of sun IR and only “backradiates” with the weakest band at night by absorbing IR from the surface.

    Yet CO2 is claimed to “warm the oceans” among other things. Sheesh.

  2. And since Oceans have a dominate influence over weather on land… (fill in logical conclusion here)

    Is this happening b/c of recent solar drop in activity?
    Can we expect a long-term shift in ocean temperatures?
    Will CO2 levels continue to rise if the oceans cool?

  3. inconvenientskeptic Oct 18th 2011

    Both of you bring up points that are part of the discussion in the book.

    I got the cover art 25 minutes ago and am otherwise ready to launch the book.

    There is a reason that warming and cooling happen and it happens against the sunspot cycles. I think it is possible that the sunspots exaggerate the natural swings in temperature.

    Richard. You are going to love the section I have on CO2. In my research I found the most overlooked answer to the 15 micron band transmission.

    Of course the real key is that the book explains WHY the Earth’s climate behaves the way that it does. 🙂

  4. Looking forward to reading it…. and sending copies to some otherwise-normally sane people who still believe in CAGW theory!

  5. When you include the absorption bands of water vapor the case for CO2 is weakened even more.

    It will be interesting to see how the global warming crowd manages to warp cooler ocean temperatures into explaining their theory, the same way they did about snowfall. Remember David Viner was all over the media announcing the end of snow from global warming back in 2000, and then when snow fall started increasing to record levels they did an about face and said this was *exactly* what they had predicted – you see global warming really predicts increased precipitation. I suspect Kevin Trenberth and his cronies are working right now to explain how cooler ocean temperatures really mean its warming.

  6. inconvenientskeptic Oct 24th 2011

    Now Bob,

    I do try to keep the insults down to a minimum. Consider this the only warning. I encourage discussion, but not trolls.

    The Muller review of the NCDC data has no meaning. It is exactly the same as proving 2 + 2 = 4. All he did was review the same data that has been out there for a while. The only expectation was that the results would be EXACTLY what they were.

    I have not even seen a reason to discuss the “BEST” reconstruction as it simply has no value.

    If you are brave, read the book. That is why I am a skeptic.

  7. Joris Vanderborght Oct 25th 2011

    If it is any good, I will translate it into Dutch ( ;

    About BEST, I don’t agree that it has no value. That’s an hyperbole. I know that it is not vital to the discussion about the causes of the warming of the climate, but stating that it had no value is really unnecessary. And I do think you should react on this site to the BEST project.

  8. inconvenientskeptic Oct 25th 2011

    BEST is a lower priority than getting the book distributed and the print version ready. I might get to it, but it won’t be very soon. I just don’t know that I would have much to add since it is at best…. a re-analysis that said nothing new from the original analysis.

  9. I notice today that lower troposphere temp is coolest in a decade for this day for the first time in a while. Selfishly, I’m excited as an avid skier. I look forward to reading your book!

  10. Richard Sharpe Nov 6th 2011

    The results are that 2011 is the 2nd coolest year since 2003 for the SST.

    I think you mean 2008 above.

    Dang. When can I order that book!

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