In the past I have used the University of Colorado for the sea level data, but I am rather disgusted by the constant tinkering that has been happening. So I have been looking around for a more reliable source of data and I have decided to make the switch to AVISO which uses much of the same data, but actually allows more direct access to the source data. All in all I am much happier with the reliability of the data from AVISO. As always I keep off-line records of the data which is why I keep noticing the differences in the past data. Hopefully with AVISO I will see less of that in the future.
Unfortunately this change will mean that future articles on the sea level will have a different baseline than the ones in the past have had. I will now be using three sources for the RSL (Relative Sea Level). The sources are JASON-1, JASON-2 and Envisat. Since these three sources all have a different baseline I used a common data of 2008.54 to line up the three different sources at 201.698 mm. When I do that I get the resulting chart for the RSL since 2002.
As usual I keep the seasonal signal and use the Inverted Barometer (Radiometer). I also ignore the foolish Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. Read the past articles on the sea level for more information on that adjustment.
The rate of sea level change for each series (entire length) is as follows:
JASON-1: 2.3 mm/yr
JASON-2: -0.6 mm/yr
Envisat: 0.5 mm/yr
None of these are showing the rates of sea level change that they get at Colorado. The linear regression there is ALWAYS ~3.1 mm/yr. Since the JASON-2 is the newest source of data and only started in mid-2008, I will use the period since then to compare the rate of sea level rise for the past few years.
Since mid-2008 rate of sea level rise:
JASON-1: -0.9 mm/yr
JASON-2: -0.6 mm/yr
Envisat: -2.9 mm/yr
All the sources of sea level data show that for the past 3 years the rate of rise has been negative. The average rate of sea level DECREASE for the past 3 years is -1.5 mm/yr.
If I do a full year to year comparison for the all three sources of RSL, the results are certainly interesting.
2011 remains on track to drop 6 mm from 2009/2010. It is in fact on track to drop back to the 2007 levels. Even without the drop that is happening in 2011, there is nothing approaching a 3 mm/yr increase in the sea levels. There is no question that 2011 will show the largest drop in sea level ever recorded. It will do so while the CO2 levels are also the highest ever recorded.
The warmists are of course preparing to spin this and it has already begun as I have previously discussed. The question is how much will the ocean levels have to drop before the warmists stop believing that CO2 causes the oceans to rise?