Global Sea Level Still Dropping


In the past I have used the University of Colorado for the sea level data, but I am rather disgusted by the constant tinkering that has been happening.  So I have been looking around for a more reliable source of data and I have decided to make the switch to AVISO which uses much of the same data, but actually allows more direct access to the source data.  All in all I am much happier with the reliability of the data from AVISO.  As always I keep off-line records of the data which is why I keep noticing the differences in the past data.  Hopefully with AVISO I will see less of that in the future.

Unfortunately this change will mean that future articles on the sea level will have a different baseline than the ones in the past have had.  I will now be using three sources for the RSL (Relative Sea Level).  The sources are JASON-1, JASON-2 and Envisat.  Since these three sources all have a different baseline I used a common data of 2008.54 to line up the three different sources at 201.698 mm.  When I do that I get the resulting chart for the RSL since 2002.

The Inconvenient Skeptic

(Blue) Jason-1, (Green) Envisat, (Brown) Jason-2

As usual I keep the seasonal signal and use the Inverted Barometer (Radiometer).  I also ignore the foolish Glacial Isostatic Adjustment.  Read the past articles on the sea level for more information on that adjustment.

The rate of sea level change for each series (entire length) is as follows:

JASON-1:  2.3 mm/yr

JASON-2:  -0.6 mm/yr

Envisat:    0.5 mm/yr

None of these are showing the rates of sea level change that they get at Colorado.  The linear regression there is ALWAYS ~3.1 mm/yr.  Since the JASON-2 is the newest source of data and only started in mid-2008, I will use the period since then to compare the rate of sea level rise for the past few years.

Since mid-2008 rate of sea level rise:

JASON-1:  -0.9 mm/yr

JASON-2:  -0.6 mm/yr

Envisat:    -2.9 mm/yr

All the sources of sea level data show that for the past 3 years the rate of rise has been negative.  The average rate of sea level DECREASE for the past 3 years is -1.5 mm/yr.

The Inconvenient Skeptic

(Blue) Jason-1, (Green) Envisat, (Brown) Jason-2

If I do a full year to year comparison for the all three sources of RSL, the results are certainly interesting.

The Inconvenient Skeptic

Yearly Average for the Relative Sea Level

2011 remains on track to drop 6 mm from 2009/2010.  It is in fact on track to drop back to the 2007 levels.  Even without the drop that is happening in 2011, there is nothing approaching a 3 mm/yr increase in the sea levels.  There is no question that 2011 will show the largest drop in sea level ever recorded.  It will do so while the CO2 levels are also the highest ever recorded.

The warmists are of course preparing to spin this and it has already begun as I have previously discussed.  The question is how much will the ocean levels have to drop before the warmists stop believing that CO2 causes the oceans to rise?

Posted in Ocean: Sea Level and SST by inconvenientskeptic on November 24th, 2011 at 4:52 am.

5 comments

This post has 5 comments

  1. Lars P. Nov 26th 2011

    Great John, happy I found your site! Was looking since some time for an alternative source to the UC sea level series, as I was unhappy of their way of treating the data. I hate it when I see a historical series where the relative positions of the older records change to each other.
    Changing the older records they discredit the former work.

  2. You do not use the Argos floats. Is there a reason?

  3. inconvenientskeptic Nov 29th 2011

    Cary,

    Argos is mainly used to collect information about the sea temperature at the surface and at depth. It is the satellite data that measures the relative sea level.

  4. Richard Dec 9th 2011

    I think that the most interesting thing is to observe this graph http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/images/news/indic/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_IB_RWT_NoGIA_NoAdjust.png (basically just the raw merged data stream) and work out if the level over the next year is going to match 2007 and, if so, how that can be explained.

    For the first time ever it looks like the yearly peak will fail to exceed the trend line!

  5. inconvenientskeptic Dec 9th 2011

    The warmists have developed a reason why it is behaving this way, while of course still explaining that it will still rise 1m by 2100. That the overall slope gets less than a third of that rise in the next one hundred years doesn’t seem to register with them. Nor does the fact that the rate of rise is decreasing.

    Yet somehow, we are the anti-science crowd.

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