I have spent way too much time looking at polls over the past month. I have looked at many possibilities, but here is where my final prediction is for the election.
I promise you that I am just as surprised to see Michigan as a Romney state this election, but that is where the numbers look to be going. There are going to be 5-6 states within a single percentage point so I will not be surprised if I am off on a couple.
For the popular vote here is my prediction:
Romney 52.5 +/- 0.5%
Obama 45.5 +/- 0.5%
other 1.5 +/- 0.5%
I will put out a state by state projection by Sunday. This will be an interesting week.
A little late, but here is my prediction for the final state by state results.
Please note that I have 5 states as less than 1% difference and Oregon which has a 1.1% gap. Pennsylvania I have as a zero percent gap. Of course if Pennsylvania has recounts like Florida did 12 years ago, the results will only matter for the historians.
I guess we will find out if my first foray into political predictions will go well tomorrow night.