I have seen a lot of “news” lately about he Earth’s temperature in the year 2100. For a long time the projection has been 3 °C, but lately the claim has bumped up to 4 °C. The idea of 3 °C was pretty silly all by itself which makes the 4°C really stupid. However I have never taken the time before to project out just what the Earth’s real temperature would look like at 4 °C, so I figured this was a good opportunity to go ahead and do that.
Remember that instead of a simple chart that warmists use to show warming, I always use the Earth’s actual temperature. When I first charted the 4 °C anomaly in the year 2100 the only thing I could do is laugh at how absurd the result is. This graphic is huge, so make sure you take a look at it full size to really see the scope of what 4 °C looks like.
I show the last 30 years (which is the time frame that they are arguing that global warming has been taking place) on the chart, but because of the scale it isn’t as clear as I would like it to be, so here is the period since 1979 using the same scale. Is there anything at all resembling what would have to happen by the year 2100?
Clearly there is nothing in how the Earth’s temperature is behaving now to indicate that the projection will take place. If the trend over the past 15 years were to continue, the the global temperature would increase by 0.45 °C by the year 2100. Predicting 4 deg-C is simply ludicrous.
The full projection is a really massive chart so you should be able to play with it quite a bit, but here are some of the highlights. In the year 2100 their projection will have the Earth’s temperature in the winter the same as the Earth’s temperature in the summer today. So January will be as warm as July in the year 2100. Think about that one for a minute. WTF are they thinking comes to mind.
When I break it down by hemisphere, the projection gets even more absurd, as if January being as warm as July wasn’t stupid enough. First I will show the projection of the Northern Hemisphere.
Please note that the scales for anomaly and actual temperature are different. The 75% of the warming being in the NH requires that the NH warm up 6 °C by the year 2100. Since it is well understood that the NH would warm up more than the SH, this is the simplest way to do the projection. In order for 4 °C to happen, by the year 2100 the winter in the NH must be as warm as it is in April today. That would be as cold as the NH could go in a world that warm. The depths of winter would be April weather. Summer, well that would be something else. There is no comparison for how HOT the NH would be in that situation, but I certainly wouldn’t want summers like that.
The actual trend of the NH would have to 14 times higher than it is now for that type of warming to take place. So only off by a little bit, but I am sure if they keep spending money on computer models they will figure out they are wrong, at least by the year 2100…
Since I leave the SH to only have to warm up 2 °C by the year 2100 for the projection, it is by far the closest. It is only off by a factor of 4.5 times. Of course if I uniformly warmed the Earth then the SH would be off by much more, but the NH wouldn’t be as absurdly wrong.
In such a world the SH would be warmer than the NH is today, which would be a pretty substantial change in climate for much of the Earth’s oceans. I hesitated making the change smaller here while allowing the NH to change more, but already the projection is in the realm of fantasy.
Why are these projections so absurd though? That will be the next article I am putting together which will take these actual temperatures for the hemispheres and determine the energy balance for the Earth in those conditions. The Earth can warm up a lot, but such temperatures are very unstable and the result of such warming will be dramatic cooling. I will show what that is true in the next article.