El Nino to La Nina transition has begun


The deep water upwelling that has been held at bay for the past year by El Nino, is starting to break through in the equatorial waters of the Pacific.  The El Nino that has been underway for the past year has been monstrous, but in most ways it hasn’t matched the granddaddy of them all which was the 97-98 one.  This remains true as it wasn’t until late May of 98 before the cool waters started to take hold.  Here is the April comparison of global SST for the ~ April 20 between 1998 and 2016.



        April 21 of 1998 shows El Nino was still strong.




               The cool water is easily visible now at the equator.


I also find it interesting how much cool water this is now overall.  The Southern Ocean is almost uniformly cold right now, as is the northern Atlantic.  Those cool waters will translate to cooler atmospheric temperatures six months from now.  2016 is off to a warm start, but the later half of the year is going to be interesting.  A year ago the first signs of the massive El Nino were already evident, but there even the northern oceans were already much warmer.  That is not the case this year.



The oceans were primed for warmth a year ago, that is not the case today.

The oceans were primed for warmth a year ago, that is not the case today.


No matter what actually happens, the warmists will proclaim 2016 once again the warmest year ever.  It is possible that 2016 will actually be that, but the oceans are going to make it interesting, because the later half of the year will be cooler than the first half.

Posted in General by inconvenientskeptic on April 22nd, 2016 at 8:04 am.


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This post has 2 comments

  1. John – Is there a mistake in the sea ice data? It is showing much more polar sea ice in 2016 than ’98.

  2. inconvenientskeptic May 3rd 2016

    The NOAA changed the color graphics between the dates, so these shouldn’t be used to estimate sea ice.

    Actual sea ice data is here:

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