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My 2011 experiment of comparing the Urban Heat Island (UHI) in my region is proceeding and the very interesting summer results are starting to show up. The results are pretty clear that urban areas do impact the anomaly data for an area and using such contaminated data will give a false warming bias that is not being properly accounted for in the temperature records. Feel free to review the earlier articles on this.
The two temperature records continue to show that they are in fact comparable for weather. Warming and cooling fronts reach both places nearly simultaneously. In this manner weather is removed as a variable for the two locations leaving only the warming and cooling that take place each day.
Despite (or perhaps because of) my hectic schedule the family took a trip up to Glacier National Park in Montana. I have always wanted to see it, but have never made it up there before. I finally used the excuse to take pictures for the website and the book to finally make it there. It is a beautiful place and well worth the visit. I did take the time to take lots of pictures and now I am going to put them to good use.
One question I wanted to ask the rangers there was “How old are the glaciers there?” There is a very common misconception that the glaciers there exist from the last ice age. That of course is wrong, but I was curious what they would say. The answer I got from the ranger was 3,000 years old. That is a reasonable answer, but one I find unlikely. Glaciers farther north and higher than Glacier National Park are typically much younger than that. I have never been able to find an ice core from glacier national park that would answer this question. Certainly it is possible that some of the glaciers are 3,000 years old, but I suspect that 900-1,000 is more accurate. I have yet to find enough accurate information to answer this though.
Posted July 25th, 2011. 5 comments
The fact that the latest sunspot cycle is very weak has gotten lots of news lately. Many are claiming that a lack of sunspots will cause the Earth to cool in the near future. I am going to stand alone as a skeptic and say I am not convinced. The data simply does not support that conclusion. I am going to explain why I do not believe the prediction that low solar activity (as measured by low sunspot counts) will cause a reversal in the warming trend.
Posted July 16th, 2011. 15 comments
One of the main reasons I am breaking the year down in the way that I am is to really show the difference between temperature anomaly data and temperature data. It also highlights the issue related to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. I have been comparing the temperature of Boise, Idaho to that of McCall, Idaho. The two places are ~100 miles apart and share the same weather. A warm front will cause both places to warm up and a cold front the reverse. This is easily shown in the daily temperature data for both locations year to date.
Posted July 1st, 2011. 3 comments
In the global warming debate there is the idea that for the first time ever the entire Earth is showing warming. In the past there were aberrations where a single part of the Earth would warm up. An hotly debated example of that is the Medieval Warming Period (MWP) where the idea is presented that the warming 1,000 years ago was only around Greenland and Norway while the rest of the Earth was cool. This leads to the idea that what is happening now is unprecedented.
I decided to take a closer look at the modern temperature data for the Earth by different region. I chose the UAH data for this because it has the most data by specific latitude. Using three specific zones it is possible to break the Earth down into three specific regions that are nearly identical in coverage.
Posted June 20th, 2011. 1 comment
It is now mid-June and there is panic starting to set in because of record amounts of snow that still cover much of the mountains in the western United States. Some places got as much as 20 additional inches of snow over Memorial Day weekend two weeks ago. In places that are normally long clear of snow at this time of year there is as much as 20 ft (6m) of snow.
The blame for this year has been on the La Nina from last winter and that certainly played a role in the amount of precipitation that feel in the mountains. What is abnormal even for a La Nina year is the simple fact that the snow is not melting. It is June and the snow is still deep in many places throughout the western US. So saying that a moderate La Nina is the cause when a stronger La Nina happened a few years ago, but without the lack of melting is a stretch.
Posted June 13th, 2011. 6 comments
2011 is not off to a very global warming year. For starters the average temperature of the Earth so far this year is right at the average for the past 30 years. There is no really warm spot on the Earth either. The Arctic is the only region that is running at +0.82 °C for […]
Posted May 25th, 2011. 7 comments
Every once in a while an unexpected opportunity presents itself to show that the Earth is doing just fine. That despite the unrelenting news that global warming is going to forever alter every aspect of life on Earth, things really are not changing according to the theory of global warming. There is a current news blossom about The Great Southern Brood of cicadas. It is also known as Brood XIX.
Posted May 12th, 2011. 1 comment
As usual the satellite data for the month of March was quickly available at the beginning of the April. This timing difference is one reason why I am doing more of my updates from the satellite data, but I am still watching the station data. Maybe this is why it really caught my attention the way it did when both the CRU and GHCN anomaly jumped in the month of March. This is in contrast to both the UAH and RSS measurements detecting a drop in global temperature anomaly.
So I decided to dig into this a little more to see why the different methods diverged so strongly. Since so many of the warmists focus solely on the station data it is important to understand what is happening to it. I am convinced that the problems inherent in the station method make it the least reliable source of monitoring the climate, but since so many do use it, it is useful to understand where it is detecting the warming.
Right after my previous article that discussed the historical problems in Antarctica, I found another article about Antarctica in National Geographic that uses modelling to answer the “mystery” of the Antarctic sea ice increase over the past 30 years. The reason it is a mystery is because that increase in sea ice coverage is contrary to the theory of global warming.
This paper got plenty of attention when it was released last August and many, many problems have been pointed out by others, but most of the discussion has focused on the inappropriate definition of warming that has taken place in the Southern Ocean. The main problem that was brought up last summer was there is very little accurate data prior to 1978 (pre satellite data problem once again, as usual). The paper is specific in its discussion of warming from 1950-1999. The main prior discussion was about the lack of valid data for the pre-1978 period. It is easy to make a warming trend when half the period has no useful data.
Posted April 16th, 2011. 8 comments