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Why the CO2 ice core reconstructions matter.

I fully agree with the assertion that CO2 is dependent on temperature (ocean temperature specifically) and I have shown why this is in the past. What I had not considered was that the entire baseline for CO2 could be incorrect. What the ice cores really provide though is a natural ceiling for the total ‘natural’ level of CO2 in the atmosphere. The ice cores show that for the past 400,000 years the level of CO2 never exceeds 300 ppm. The highest recorded value in the Vostok ice core is 298.7 ppmv which was for YBP 323,485. If that data is accepted, then values higher than that today must be unnatural. That is certainly what warmists like to show.

Posted August 8th, 2011.

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Regional Temperature Update: 2011

In the Northwestern US 2011 has not been a fun year. At least it hasn’t been if you want to be outside enjoying the weather. I have been tracking the temperature and the anomaly for two locations. One is the urban Boise, Idaho area and the other is a low impact, non urban area. This is a good way to show the Urban Heat Island effect and to also show how daily temperature data is converted into sterile anomaly data.

One reason people are unhappy around here with the weather is that it has not been warm. So far in 2011 there have been 2 days over 25 °C. As recently as a couple of days ago the high temperature was 11 °C. McCall has not even had it that nice as it has had only two days this year above 20 °C. Here are the daily temperatures as calculated in the same manner as used to determine the station data.

Posted June 1st, 2011.

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The Urban Heat Island in Realtime!!!

Earlier this week I was commenting on the very cool spring that Boise has been experiencing. Living in Boise I happen to know how built up the area has become over the past 20 years. That it is in a valley as well only makes the potential Urban Heat Island effect even greater. I have often wondered how much of the warming that Boise experiencing is due to the change in the area. Since I had done the analysis for Boise already, I decided to compare it to a region that was close area that was not an urban or agricultural area.

McCall is even a little town, but having been there plenty of times I know that it isn’t very built up, at least not yet. It is a higher altitude that Boise so the temperatures are lower, but this is where anomaly is once again useful. The locations are near enough that major storm systems will effect both places in a similar manner, but a difference in the anomaly could be an indication of the UHI.

Posted April 27th, 2011.

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Finding the Cause of the Station Method Problem

In the past month I have shown some detailed response of the Earth’s temperature to global events. Examples of this are the ENSO and volcanic eruptions. By comparing the temperature anomaly between the satellite and the station methods for these events, it has become clear that the station method is becoming less sensitive to these events over time.

The main problem with the station behavior is that over the past 20 years the measured global temperature has started to diverge more from the satellite method. This leaves everyone with different choices as to what data they use to look for global warming and the results are substantially different. It is clear why the satellite method is more responsive at detecting global temperature change, but that doesn’t explain why the station method is becoming less effective over time.

Posted April 9th, 2011.

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Proving the Problem with the Station Data

The theme of the week turned out to be a comparison of how the satellite and station data behave. I started out with the observation that the station data is responding less to ENSO events than it has in the past. It is a steady progression of decreasing response. Then I showed how the station data is poor in comparison to the satellite data at detecting the effects of volcanic eruptions. I asked how can the station data have better resolution at detecting global warming if it is significantly inferior at detecting the climate effects of a volcanic eruption or the ENSO.

Now I am going to show what happens to the two types of data if the above events are removed from the global temperature anomaly since 1979. That is 31 years of global temperature, but with the main events removed from the record. For the ENSO and volcanic events in the past 31, the station data has averaged only 60% of the response that the satellite data has. So what does the warming of the past 31 years look like if those events are removed?

Posted March 24th, 2011.

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Detecting the Global Warming Temperature Signal

When was the last time an article popped up stating that something was a “unequivocal” sign that global warming was upon us? Okay, to be honest those happen just about every day. There was even an article questioning if the earthquake in Japan might have been caused by global warming. That is a textbook example of FUD. That absurdity is…. well I have no further comment on it.

There are many different parts of the climate that can be looked at. The sea level rise is a popular one, but it hasn’t been very cooperative lately. The Arctic sea ice is still popular and will get lots of attention in this year. Of course the Antarctic sea ice isn’t behaving in the same manner so that is a tough sell for the warming being global. Blaming the lack of snow might work, until the increasing snow was caused by global warming. Since the impacts of global warming seem to be a moving target it can be tricky knowing what is supposed to be an effect and what isn’t.

Posted March 22nd, 2011.

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New Mystery with the Station Temperature Data

I have been comparing the response of global temperature to particular events that happen to the Earth’s climate. A quick look at any of the satellite records show that a good starting point is the ENSO cycle (El Nino/La Nina) in the Pacific Ocean. This led me to looking into how the station data sets (GHCN, CRU) respond to comparable events that cause a change in global temperature anomaly.

On average a significant ENSO event will cause the average temperature of the Earth to change by 0.27 °C. An El Nino in the positive direction and the La Nina in the negative direction. In fact the global temperature response is a good indicator in the overall strength of the ENSO event. The El Nino in 1998 stands out as an enormous event both as an El Nino and an increase in the global temperature, at least in the satellite temperature data.

Posted March 20th, 2011.

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