I have to say I was looking forward to the eventual release of the Global Sea level data from the University of Colorado because it was clear from the last update in August that 2010 was going to show a significant drop in sea level from 2009 and I was curious how it would be dealt with. Now it is clear that the latest update included a substantial revision to the data, not just the recent data, but all the data. I guess I should not be surprised by this as it has happened with numerous other data sets. If the data doesn’t support your view, do a revision that fixes the problem.
Nor is this a trivial change. It adds on average 2.6 mm to the global sea level, but not surprisingly it does so more as time goes forward. That average of 2.6 mm is from 1993-2010. The average difference in 2009-2010 is a stunning 4.7mm. After enough tweaking they managed to get 2010 to show a minor increase in sea level from 2009. Here is the version difference between the data that was released last fall and the most recent version.
The La Nina of last fall has been fading of late even though the ENSO index continues to be negative. Since it is obvious that global temperatures are impacted by ENSO events (more on that here) I started trying to figure out what is going to happen for the coming fall when the Pacific Ocean will be determining the type of winter that North America and parts of Asia will be having later in the year.
My method was simple and didn’t use a single super computer or GCM, but I still trust the results. The fall predication is based solely on how the current ocean anomaly pattern compares to past years. I am not sure what methods are used by others for this, but after looking at enough anomaly maps for the oceans it is obvious that there is a cycle to the ENSO and is evident in the anomaly of the Pacific Ocean.
Previously I showed that the “rise in the sea levels” was decelerating. I did this using data from the University of Colorado “No Inverted Barometer Applied” data. I was challenged in my choice of data as the Inverted Barometer data is adjusted for atmospheric disturbances (high and low pressure systems) that affect the satellite data. I prefer to work with the unadjusted data which is why I made the choice I did. I commented with a rough calculation that the inverted barometer gave even more deceleration than the unadjusted data and left it at that.
As I got busy with my move I left it at that. I kept thinking more about it and decided to revisit the issue. So I went back and re-did all the work and set it up so I would easily be able to apply the same methods to the different types of satellite sea level data. My rough estimate that the inverted barometer (IB) is showing greater deceleration than the unadjusted data (No-IB) stands. It is more refined now, but the result is clear. There is no chance that the IPCC is correct that the sea level will rise 1m by 2100 based on anything seen in the actual data.
Posted February 16th, 2011. 6 comments
When I previously discussed that 2010 will likely show a significant drop in the global sea level I also stated that the rate of rise was decreasing. I spent some time trying to find a good way to accurately portray the accuracy of that statement. It occurred to me that perhaps the best way to do so was to determine the “acceleration” of the sea level rise. If one thinks of the the change in sea level as a “speed” then the acceleration would be the rate at which the velocity is changing. The end result is surprising and in the end I have a definitive acceleration rate for the sea level rise. Unfortunately it is not one that the warmists will like, but the numbers are strikingly clear.
The first step I used was to calculate the rate of rise for each 5 year period from 1995-2008. I used the least adjusted data from The University of Colorado sea level data. That would be the no-inverted-barometer with the seasonal signal included. This should be the most raw form of the sea level data. I have shown the 5 year trend for each year with the raw data here.
Posted February 6th, 2011. 21 comments
Based on the most current data it appears that 2010 is going to show the largest drop in global sea level ever recorded in the modern era. Since many followers of global warming believe that the rate of sea level rise is increasing, a significant drop in the global sea level highlights serious flaws in the IPCC projections. The oceans are truly the best indicator of climate. The oceans drive the world’s weather patterns. A drop in the ocean levels in a year that is being cited as proof that the global warming has arrived shows that there is still much to learned. If the ocean levels dropped in 2010, then there is something very wrong with the IPCC projections.
Posted January 16th, 2011. 36 comments