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The Failure of GCM’s in the Evolution of Antarctica

Antarctica. It has an average temperature of -50 °C. There is enough ice locked up there to to increase the global sea levels by more than 70m. It has been that way for longer than mankind has existed. Antarctica has not always been such an inhospitable place though. In the time of the dinosaurs it was a temperature place. There were no glaciers, it was probably a pretty nice place to live.

When Antarctica started to freeze over 34 million years ago, the average temperature of the Earth was about 7 °C warmer than it is now. The freezing of Antarctica triggered one of the greatest climate change events ever recorded and the Earth has never been the same since that event. It also triggered the greatest extinction since the dinosaurs.

Posted April 13th, 2011.


Why Satellites are Better at Measuring Global Temperature

There has been a lot of discussion about the difference between the satellite and station methods of measuring the global temperature and which is better. This is one of the more contentious aspects of the global warming debate. It gets people very agitated. There are serious problems and benefits with both methods, but my main method has been to compare their response to climate events. In that regard there is no question that the satellite method registers a greater response to events. This is shown in the following two posts.
Detecting the Global Warming Temperature Signal
Proving the Problem with the Station Data

I will not repeat any of the arguments from those articles here. Instead I will focus on the difference between the two methods and why I feel that the satellite method is more accurate and responsive at detecting changes in the global temperature.

Posted March 29th, 2011.


Proving the Problem with the Station Data

The theme of the week turned out to be a comparison of how the satellite and station data behave. I started out with the observation that the station data is responding less to ENSO events than it has in the past. It is a steady progression of decreasing response. Then I showed how the station data is poor in comparison to the satellite data at detecting the effects of volcanic eruptions. I asked how can the station data have better resolution at detecting global warming if it is significantly inferior at detecting the climate effects of a volcanic eruption or the ENSO.

Now I am going to show what happens to the two types of data if the above events are removed from the global temperature anomaly since 1979. That is 31 years of global temperature, but with the main events removed from the record. For the ENSO and volcanic events in the past 31, the station data has averaged only 60% of the response that the satellite data has. So what does the warming of the past 31 years look like if those events are removed?

Posted March 24th, 2011.


Understanding Time Lag

One of my favorite aspects of writing articles for this website is I am constantly learning new things about the Earth and the climate. There are so many aspects to understand and there is always more to learn. Being open to new information is the true nature of the scientific method. It is also one that has broken down in the global warming debate because so few people are open to contrary findings.

The unexpected new piece of the puzzle that I stumbled across deals with the temperature of the land in different seasons. It focuses on the United States, but the behaviors described would apply to all regions of the Earth to some degree. Specifically it deals with how the temperature of the Earth itself varies at different depth over the course of the seasons. It is also a perfect example of how time lags show up in the climate cycles.

Posted March 10th, 2011.


How Quickly does the Climate Respond to Change? Part 2

In Part 1 I discussed many instances where the Earth’s climate responded quickly to changes that happen on a regular basis. Events like seasons and volcanic eruptions all can cause the climate to respond very quickly to these events. Despite this there is a persistent belief amongst warmists that there is much more warming that is going to happen as a result of the CO2 emissions that have already happened. This would indicate that the climate responds slowly to changes.

This is where the idea of thermal inertia enters into the picture. The usage of thermal inertia in the terms of climate change is a very unusual usage of the scientific term. In normal usage it only applies when the steady state equations won’t apply because of the delay in the heat transfer into an object. In climate they have used it to say that the entire depths of the oceans will warm as a result of CO2 levels. They have created a delay so even if there isn’t warming, they can say that warming is taking place, but it is happening deep in the oceans and that is why it isn’t seen. This allows them to say that the warming will keep going for 100 or even 1,000 years even if CO2 is stopped now.

Posted March 3rd, 2011.


How Quickly does the Climate Respond to Change? Part 1

This current article started out as a simple article about the time lag (or response time) between a change in CO2 level and when the warming takes place. The warmist theory indicates that it takes decades or centuries for the full effects of CO2 to be felt. This is in stark contrast to all other atmospheric effects that show a response on the order of a few months for the full effects to be felt.

The article grew long enough that it will now be a two part article. The first will cover the time lag of the Earth for different types of changes. The second part will discuss the theory that warmists use to support the claim that it will be a hundreds or thousands of years before the full effects are felt.

This is one of the least discussed aspects of global warming, but it is absolutely critical for future projections of warming. If there is little to no time lag, then the full effects of current CO2 emissions are already being felt. If the lag is 50 years, then we are only starting to feel the effects of the emissions from 1960 when the CO2 level was still around 320 ppm. The importance of understanding how quickly the climate responds is critical to future projections.

Posted February 28th, 2011.


Vostok Lake: Data collection in the next couple of years

Lake Vostok, which has been sealed off from the world for 14 million years, is about to be penetrated by a Russian drill bit.

The lake, which lies four kilometres below the icy surface of Antarctica, is unique in that it’s been completely isolated from the other 150 subglacial lakes on the continent for such a long time. It’s also oligotropic, meaning that it’s supersaturated with oxygen — levels of the element are 50 times higher than those found in most typical freshwater lakes.

Posted January 7th, 2011.

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Radiative Heat Transfer: Simple Overview

The linchpin of the global warming debate centers on what the impact is of increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. If there is little to no impact, then there is not problem. If it does make a big difference, then there is reason to worry. That question is answered through the analysis of radiative heat transfer. This is the most misunderstood science in the entire debate. This is meant to be a simple overview of radiative heat transfer (RHT).

Posted November 2nd, 2010.


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