According to the theory of global warming, anything that changes the radiative energy balance of the Earth will cause a change in temperature that is correlated to the change of energy. The “consensus” is that a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere will increase the energy at the surface by 3.7 W/m2. This additional energy will increase the temperature of the Earth by 3 °C.
So in this case, the climate sensitivity is described as temperature impact as a result of the doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. In proper scientific form the climate sensitivity is the change in temperature as a result of a change in energy.
Climate Sensitivity = delta T / Delta E (K/Wm2)
I have bumped up the two articles on climate sensitivity because I am getting some very interesting results on that topic. Note that in both articles I achieved a result of a climate sensitivity of 0.24 °C / (W/m2 ). That corresponds to a doubling effect of CO2 at about 0.9 °C.
These articles show two independent methods that achieve the same result. One provides the basis (a theory if you will) for predicting what the Earth’s climate sensitivity is. The other article uses the local changes in solar energy to determine the climate sensitivity and it gives a comparable result to the overall one.
This matters at the moment because I have found some stunning results that require action. I am looking for assistance in putting the results together in a paper to be submitted for publication. Anyone experienced in working through that labyrinth of publication would be appreciated. This is a very important result because if it can be proven that the Earth’s climate sensitivity is less than 1 °C for a doubling of CO2 then there is almost no cause for concern. It could mean that CO2 does have some effect, but one that is limited enough to not be much of a worry.
A climate sensitivity at the 0.24 °C / (W/m2) scale would indicate that CO2 levels of 1,200 ppm would result in less than a 2 °C temperature change. That puts the IPCC projections off by more than a factor of 3. This could be a pretty significant result.
Over the past 450,000 years there have been several major glacial/interglacial (ice age/current climate) cycles. The current interglacial has been “warm” for about 11,000 years now. This period is very commonly referred to as the Holocene interglacial. The current interglacial was “triggered” by a change in the orbital parameters of the Earth’s orbit. Climate sensitivity can be determined from this change.
Understanding local changes in temperature and energy is often critical to understanding the Earth’s climate. Such analysis is usually ignored. That is one important reason that the climate sensitivity is routinely overstated. The current geography of the Earth is such that the changes in energy to the Northern Hemisphere are the most significant aspect to understanding the Earth’s climate.
While researching the AGW models of CO2 forcing I found a significant overstatement that severely weakens the stated impact of increasing CO2 levels.